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The Impact of Rainfall Fluctuations on Regional Disparities in Poverty in Senegal


The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of rainfall shocks on poverty within different agro-ecological areas of Senegal based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model in which we include an index that captures rainfall fluctuations. The simulation performed shows that a drop in rainfall leads to an increase in poverty. Rural populations in the agro-ecological areas of Senegal’s peanut basin, forest grazing areas and Casamance are most affected, due to the fact that their activities are relatively more dependent on rainfall. Given the links between agriculture and the rest of the economy, households in urban areas are also affected. During periods of abundant rainfall, the incidence of poverty decreases among all groups.

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